Danny Ainge Has a Posse

2009 offseason v1.0

Don’t have as good a feel for this offseason as in the past, but my quick wishlist given our current roster 12 players + Big Baby Davis (restricted FA):

Rondo
R. Allen
Pierce
Garnett
Perkins

House
Big Baby Davis (R.F.A)
Scalabrine
B. Walker
Giddens
T. Allen
Pruitt
Hudson

1. Resign Marbury at $1.4M using his non-bird rights. I must say that I’ve only recently come around to this idea, but he seems motivated and with a full training camp might actually resemble a player. At $1.4M, its still relatively low risk.

2. Sign Shawn Marion or Rasheed Wallace using the MLE. Marion could be a $17M/3yr deal, Wallace a $11M/2yr deal —- these 2 plus McDyess might be the only guys I’d spend the full MLE on.

3. S&T (or just trade) for a wing defender (using some combination of Tony Allen, Giddens and/or Pruitt’s expiring contracts) in the $3-4M range, my preferences:

• Jamario Moon
• Dahntay Jones
• Charlie Bell
• Matt Barnes
• Ime Udoka

The idea is that while these teams might not resign these guys for $3M (or might not be in the position to), they would get T. Allen as a 1-year rental to be a bench player and possible trade chip.

4. Match Big Baby Davis up to $3.5-4M, up to 3 years —- more than that try and work out a sign-and-trade for a backup PF or wing defender.

5. Sign Theo Ratliff, Brian Skinner or Shelden Williams to a vet. min. contract.

Final roster after these 5 moves:

Rondo / Marbury / Hudson
R. Allen / House / Giddens
Pierce /  Moon or Jones (et al.) / Walker
Garnett / Davis (or traded PF) / Scalabrine
Perkins / R. Wallace / Ratliff or Skinner

Quick thoughts on losing KG for the 2009 Playoffs

1. Even if this is the begining of the end. It was all worth it. Every minute of last season was worth it. We won #17. Case closed.

2. I don’t think this is the end. We’ve still got a very good team and will go down fighting. How much does this pull the team together? We’re about to see what Ubuntu is made of. Beating ORL, LA and CLE just got a lot harder but not impossible.

3. I lay some of this at Ainge’s feet for not getting another big in here last offseason. I love Powe & Baby, but we need some more size with or without KG. Rasheed Wallace should be target #1 this offseason, with guys like Shawn Marion and Drew Gooden plans B.

4. Would like to also see Ainge get back into the 1st round this year (seems many teams will be selling their picks again) and grab a young big. Preferably in the Al Jefferson/Kendrick Perkins mold. :)

5 Hours to the Trade Deadline Wishlist

As with last year any moves just before or just after the deadline are aimed at bolstering the bench.

Chances are looking much better that we may be able to add one or both of Joe Smith and/or Stephon Marbury. Smith would be a great addition — in part because we’d have the inside track for signing him for next season (like with Cassell this season). I’ve cooled considerably on Marbury — in part because he’s not played this whole season and in part because I think we need a wing defender more than a scoring PG.

Here’s some moves I’d like to see the C’s make in the next 5 hours-to-5 days (in rough order of preference):

1.  Joe Smith — I’d rather add Smith in a trade since it removes some salary from next season, but doing so would be next to impossible. However, it seems like it’s more possible that Smith may be bought out and that he may in fact want to sign with the C’s.

2. Deshawn Stevenson — Washington has been rumored as one of the many teams looking to shed salary and Stevenson would be a great addition to guard the Kobes and Lebrons in the playoffs. A 3-way with WAS & MEM that sends Tony Allen, Big Baby, POB and $3M to MEM, Chris Mihm (and his expiring contract) to WAS, and Stevenson to the Celtics would be, as Michael Scott says, a win-win-win, no?

3. Brian Skinner — has played well for the always cost-conscious Clippers this year in a spot-starter role. Could be had for the Trade Exception created in the Sam Cassell deal.

4. Jared Dudley or Matt Barnes — seems like they both fit in with the return-to-run-and-gun Suns, but like with Skinner either could be had for the Trade Exception. Sending Dudley to the Celtics would free the Suns from his $1.3M salary next season.

5. Stephon Marbury — if we can add him for the vet minimum, I guess you can’t argue it’s not worth the risk. But there is a chance NY might just say “screw you” and keep him for the rest of the season at this point. Would be a great offensive addition, but doesn’t address the 2 biggest needs on this team: Size and wing defense.

6. Francisco Elson — See Skinner, Brian. Elson is more of shot blocker and has a 2nd year on his deal, but trading him for the Trade Exception would give MIL more room to resign Villanueva & Sessions this summer.

7. Sam Cassell — If we don’t add Marbury, I fully expect Cassell to be waived/resigned.

8. James Posey — this was the best I could do to re-add Posey, who’s not as big a salary hit if we move Scal & Tony Allen, as opposed to add him to a roster with Scal/Allen. Not gonna happen with Chandler failing his OKC physical, but it’s always fun to play GM.

Before the House & Allen signings

Before Eddie House and Tony Allen were brought back into the fold, I stepped back and took a look at the possible shift in philosophy Ainge had hinted at and looked at the resultant possibilities for the final 3 roster spots:

OK, this is admittedly still only a partially formed concept, but here’s a stab at what/who Danny might be targetting — especially in light of his comments about winning a different way.

I wonder if that “different way isn’t adding some offense (and/or offensive consistency) to the bench so that we don’t lose leads when the starters are out like we did last year.

I think that offense can/will come from Powe, Tony Allen (or his replacement on the wing) and Bill Walker (or JR Giddens) — especially if they’re playing with a PG who can/will get them the ball in positions to score. If they can average 30-35 ppg collectively, I think that will offset a lot of what we’re losing with Posey’s defense.

I think Ainge will add the following to the bench (high/medium/low $
options below)

1 - Point Guard
1/2 - wings
1 - big man

Point Guard
—————-
Tony Allen clearly has a much better chance of coming back to this team now, and i’d welcome him with open arms IF AND ONLY IF (a) he’s brought back as a SG NOT A PG and (b) he plays SG ALONGSIDE A “TRUE PG” so that he doesn’t have to handle the ball.

I’m fine with Pruitt getting some minutes at backup-backup PG, but if Tony Allen is coming back we need someone to set him up for scoring opps… i think he could reprise the role Ricky Davis played a few years back - instant offense off the bench. But he can’t create it himself.

HIGH - Janero Pargo or Keyon Dooling
MED - Darrell Armstrong or Jason Williams
LOW - Kevin Ollie or Dan Dickau

We don’t need this guy to be all-world, just do a solid job passing and protecting the ball when running the 2nd unit, and add in 4-6 ppg.

I can’t believe i’m saying this but I could even see Sam Cassell filling this role. Basically like Lindsey Hunter did for the Pistons… play every other game, but be ready for the playoffs.


Wings
———-
I still would love to trade for Trenton Hassell, who paired with Tony Allen would be 2 solid wing defenders to throw at Kobe, LeBron, et al. I think Ainge will look to add Energy guys, with 1 scorer + 1 stopper or 2 better than avg defenders

HIGH - Matt Barnes
MED - Tony Allen, Quinton Ross, Devin Brown (and his 2 championship rings)
LOW - Bobby Jones, Terrance Kinsey,

I think Bill Walker may be more ready mentally to step in and be a bench scorer, a la Stuckey or Nick Young last year, while JR Giddens may need some time, a la Pruitt.


Big Man
———-
I actually think O’Bryant has a chance to be a very solid bench contributor, especially as a help defender and rebounder. The problem is I don’t think he can play big minutes if Perk is hurt or gets in foul trouble. So i’d like Danny to add 1 more veteran big who would be a solid, if unspectacular fill-in for Perk should he get injured, but who is fine with reduced mins while we try and develop O’Bryant.

All these guys are LOW to MED:

Jake Voskuhl
Lorenzen Wright
Dikembe Mutombo

Offseason Plan v2.1 (post-draft)

Following last week’s CelticStuffLive, I was better able to articulate DAHAP Plan v2.1 and went so far as to start writing it up. At the time it looked like we were gonna be choosing between James Posey and Corey Maggette.

What a difference 72 hours make.

Maggette is signing with Golden St. and Posey continues to be linked to just about every playoff team. Rather than go back and edit my now out of date plan/thoughts I’ll condense them here.

The basic point I was gonna make is that I think Ainge wants to keep cap flexibility for 2011, and therefore won’t sign Posey to more than the MLE for 3 years (I think Posey wants 4, or even 5). I go back and forth… at this minute, I think i’d throw caution to the wind — you never know what will happen that far down the line — and give Posey a 4th year (a player as in-demand as Posey could be moved pretty easily if needed), but I think Ainge will hold firm and if he can’t sign Posey, go after 2-3 cheaper replacements (see list below).

Offseason Plan v2.1
As it stands going into the FA signing period, the Celtics have 9 players under contract plus 2 draft picks, J.R. Giddens and Bill Walker, both of whom I hope/think they will sign.

Rondo / Pruitt
R. Allen / Giddens
Pierce / Walker / Scalabrine
Garnett / Powe / Davis
Perkins


1. Resign Eddie House (2 yr/$3.7M, non-bird rights, 2nd year at player option)
At least one of Posey or House has to be brought back, IMO. House is a relatively cheap option and an underrated part of this team.

2. Resign James Posey (3 or 4 yr/$25.0M, MLE)
As i said above, I’d go one extra year to sign Posey. The more I think about it though the more I think Posey will not be resigned —- and i’d be OK with that too. There are just too many alternatives that offer most of what he does on the court for a lot less money.

Then again, he’s one of the keys to the bench and to Ubuntu, and could be moved if/when capspace was needed. The other downside to signing Posey with MLE means we have no other money to sign FA’s other than the vet. minimum. For that reason I’d almost rather offer Posey a 5 yr. non-Bird rights contract that would pay him $22.3M than give him a 4 yr MLE deal — if we’re gonna forgo cap flexibility might as well lessen the overall blow.

2a. Trade Brian Scalabrine, Big Baby Davis & $3M to New Jersey Nets for Trenton Hassell
This would be my first Plan B if we couldn’t resign Posey. Hassell was a throw-in in the Jason Kidd deal and it sounds like NJ has no plans for him in their rotation. He’d be another wing defender to throw at the likes of LeBron, Kobe, Wade, AI2, Caron Butler, Danny Granger, etc. to keep Ray Allen and Pierce fresh. Scal was/is a fan favorite in NJ and they’d get a year to look at Big Baby. I think BBD is gonna be very hard to resign next summer for reasonable money. And while i love the kid’s personality and girth (I have a soft spot for short, fat guys like me) I think he’s never gonna be more than a 15 mpg guy b/c of his lack of height which leads to many of his shots getting blocked.

2c. Trade Scalabrine + 2010 #1 pick to the Oklahoma City Robber Barrons for $3.2M Trade Exception and a 2010 2nd round pick
If we sign Posey to a 4 yr MLE, this becomes a lot more necessary IMO. I almost would hate to do this to Scalabrine, who went on record as being bummed by Seattle’s relocation. But OKC would get another 1st round pick, we’d free up Scalabrine’s and the 2010 #1 pick salary obligations and we’d get a sizeable Trade Exception for use later should we need it. The Trade Exception will probably come in handy as teams look to clear capspace for next summer and 2010. Losing the 2010 #1 pick doesn’t bother me as (a) it’ll be relatively low and (b) #1 picks sound easy enough to buy if we really like someone.

3. Sign Kelenna Azubuike or Quinton Ross (3 yr/$8.1M, partial MLE)
With Maggette signing with the Warriors they may be less likely to match a large offer to Azubuike, a college teammate of Rondo’s at Kentucky. He’d be my slight preference over Ross but either would be relatively inexpensive options to replace Posey’s defense.

3a. Resign Tony Allen (1yr/$1.5M, Bird rights)
If we can’t add Azubuike or Ross, I’d welcome Tony Allen back with open arms and with a 1-year, “show us what you got” contract. Matt Barnes would be another option but he’d probably want about 2x the money & years — but he’d be a nice fit.

4. Sign Adonal Foyle (1 yr/$1.75M, partial MLE)
After Kurt Thomas who reportedly want’s a 3-year deal, Foyle is probably the surest bet among the FA bigs. He won’t do much other than block shots, get some rebounds and be a good teamate. He’s a one year bridge to bringing in Rasheed Wallace next year (yup, that’s what I’d do if I were Danny).

5. Sign Chris Andersen (2 yr/$1.6M, vet min., 2nd year team option)
Andersen would make a great backup big in our system with his weakside defense. Low risk, high reward signing.

6. Sign either Randolph Morris or Jackie Butler (1 yr/$800K, vet. minimum)
With Clifford Ray on the bench we should always have a young big man project on the roster. Worst case scenario we cut him if someone better comes along, best case Ray works his magic and we have a young, cheap big backing up Perk.

These moves would give us a roster of:

Rondo / House / Pruitt
R. Allen / [Azubuike or Ross] / Giddens
Pierce / [Posey or Hassell] / Walker
Garnett / Powe / Andersen
Perkins / Foyle / [Morris or Butler]

The only potential problem is the lack of a “true” backup PG, but i’d be willing to get around that with R. Allen or Pierce handling the ball when House is on the floor in exchange for getting more defensive help on the wings.

FA Rankings:
Some guys are a spot or 2 lower b/c of what they’re reported to be looking for in terms of a contract.

Point Guards
——————-
1. House (signed with Boston!)
2. Keyon Dooling (signed with NJ (via S&T))
3. Janero Pargo
4. Shaun Livingston
5. Carlos Arroyo
6. Tyron Lue (signed with MIL)
7. Anthony Johnson (signed with ORL)
8. Jason Williams
9. Sebastian Telfair (resigned with MIN)
10. Damon Stoudamire

Dont’ want at all: Sam Cassell

Swingmen
————-
1. Posey (signed with NOH)
2. Azubuike (restricted) (resigned with GSW)
3. Ross
4. Tony Allen (resigned with Boston!)
5. Matt Barnes (signed with PHO)
6. Eduardo Najera (signed with NJ)
7. Justin Reed
8. James Jones (signed with MIA)
9. Fred Jones
10. Eddie Basden
11. Kirk Snyder

Don’t want at all: Brent Barry (Yay! Signed with HOU)

Bigs
——-
1. Kurt Thomas (signed with SA)
2. Adonal Foyle
3. Chris Andersen (signed with DEN)
4. Malik Allen (signed with MIL)
5. Jake Voskuhl
6. Theo Ratliff
7. Alexander Johnson
8. Lorenzen Wright
9. Jackie Butler
10. Randolph Morris
11. Francisco Elson

Don’t want at all: Alonzo Mourning or Kwame Brown

Offseason Plan v1.0 (pre-draft)

Here’s what I’d like to see the NBA Champion Celtics do this offseason.

FYI, last year we were ~ $6-7 Million over the Luxury Tax limit. By my calculations the lowest we could get over the Lux Tax is $5.6 M (i.e. getting rid of Scal, Posey, signing vet guys) and the most we could go (using all our exceptions) is $16.8M. So it’s gonna be more than last season. My plan puts us $13.0M over the lux tax. This year is the biggest hit b/c it is the final year of KG’s original contract. His deal alone drops $8M next season.

(in rough chronological order)

1. Draft (a) DeVon Hardin, (b) Courtney Lee or (c) Nathan Jawai at #30
I think Hardin and Lee sound NBA ready and are the most suited to play a role on next year’s team. Jawai is a very intriguing big man who could probably be convinced to stay in Australia for one more season.

2. Draft one of the following at #60: Sasha Kaun, Marcelius Kemp, Othello Hunter, Demarcus Nelson
Kaun has a contract to play in Russia, so picking him would be a good investment at #60. Kemp sounds like he would fit right into the Ubuntu concept. Putting him in the D-League would be a cheap investment for the C’s, who can get away with 14 roster guys.

3. Resign Eddie House (2 yr/$3.7M, non-bird rights, 2nd year at player option)
I like what House brings to the table: long range shooting to spread the floor, hustle, underated defense and a commitment to doing things right and expecting the same from teammates. $1.8M/year for a backup PG is a bargain for the C’s but with the player option I think House would love to not have to move his family again and loves playing for this team with these guys.

4. Resign James Posey (4 yr/$17.2M, non-bird rights, 4th year at player option)
The most I’d sign Posey at is 3 yr MLE ($17.7M), but signing him with his non-Bird rights (only $500k less for the life of the contract) has the advantages of (a) decreasing our luxury tax payment this year by $2M for Posey, and (b) keeping the MLE intact should their be a player that we want to sign with all or part of it.

4b. Sign Quinton Ross (3 yr/$8.1M, partial MLE)
If we can’t resign Posey, or he wants a 4-5 year full MLE deal, Quinton Ross would be my choice to replace Posey. He’s a strong defender and good team guy.

5. Sign either Tyronn Lue or Kevin Ollie to a veteran’s minimum contract (1 yr/$1.2M vet min)
I think House’s shortcomings as the backup PG are overblow…this team won nearly 50 games with him as the backup PG before Cassell came on board. Signing guys to the veteran minimum means that only $797K counts toward lux tax. I think either Lue or Ollie would accept the role similar to Lindsey Hunter’s role for Detroit this season: emergency 3rd or 4th string PG, spot starter if Rondo was to get injured.

Lue is great friends with KG, Ollie has been Ray Allen’s teammae in SEA & MIL and is Donny Marshall’s best friend and would presumably be tight with DM and Ray. Lue has extensive Finals experience with LA and is 5 years younger than Ollie, but might be more interested in playing time than Ollie.

6. Sign Malik Allen (1 yr/$1.2 M, vet min or slightly higher MLE)
Allen is a little undersized to play Center but would provide backup PF/C depth beside Powe and alongside Big Baby. He’s a good rebounder and solid team guy. If we could sign him for the vet. min it would only count $797K against the luxury tax (~$1M savings in lux. tax payments).

7. Sign Jake Voskuhl (1 yr/$1.2 M, vet min)
Voskuhl would be the 3rd or 4th big off the bench, filling the role that we hoped Pollard could fill this season. I think he was a college teammate of Ollie’s, and would be our 4th UConn guy — if you include Donny Marshall :)

8. Trade Brian Scalabrine, Big Baby Davis & $3M to New Jersey Nets for Trenton Hassell
Hassell was a throw-in in the Jason Kidd deal and it sounds like NJ has no plans for him in their rotation. He’d be another wing defender to throw at the likes of LeBron, Kobe, Wade, AI2, Caron Butler, Danny Granger, etc. to keep Ray Allen and Pierce fresh. Scal was/is a fan favorite in NJ and they’d get a year to look at Big Baby. I think BBD is gonna be very hard to resign next summer for reasonable money. And while i love the kid’s personality and girth (I have a soft spot for short, fat guys like me) I think he’s never gonna be more than a 15 mpg guy b/c of his lack of height which leads to many of his shots getting blocked.

It sounds like Hassell might be headed to POR though as part of a draft day deal including Jarrett Jack and NJ/POR swapping the 10 and 13 picks.

8b. Trade Brian Scalabrine, Big Baby Davis & $3M to New Orleans for Chris Anderson (2 yr/$8M, 2 yr team option, sign & trade)
I’d guess that NO would like to keep Anderson, but if he want’s more than they’d like to pay him this would be a good match. Scal played his first 3 seasons under Byron Scott and LSU-alum BBD would be a fan favorite in New Orleans. This would be a big risk/big reward deal. Anderson is coming back from 2 yr drug suspension but would be an exciting, athletic backup for Perk & KG.

these moves would give us a roster of:

Rondo / House / Lue (or Ollie)
R. Allen / T. Allen / Pruitt
Pierce / Posey (or Ross) / Hassell
Garnett / Powe / M. Allen
Perkins / Voskuhl / Hardin

Now that’s a team that can win #18!

PS. These moves would give us 10 guys under contract for the 2009-10 season and with those 10 guys we’d be under the estimated luxury tax, which would mean signing a guy at the MLE and another at the LLE would only put us $5-7M over the estimated Lux Tax limit.

What Would Gene Do?

What Would Gene Do? In honor of long-time IGTCer Gene K. I was going to attempt a full 1st round mock draft, but my head hurts from all the moves. Instead here are guys i like and think will be better than expected and guys i think will be a bust.

In some ways the draft was more fun when the C’s were picking low b/c there were more guys to say “pick, pick!!” or “beware!!”. At #30 we just take the best remaining among DeVon Hardin, Courtney Lee, and Nathan Jawai, maybe Bill Walker. The only sliders that might budge me from that position are Ryan Anderson or maybe JJ Hickson.

Guys I’d love to add to the C’s:

OJ Mayo — sounds like a great team first guy, despite his rep, and I think MIA will just take him at #2 outright.

Kevin Love — looks and plays like Dino Radja, and that’s a good thing.

Brandon Rush — If i were running the Clippers, Bucks, Bobcats or Pacers he wouldn’t get past me at 7,8, 9 or 11; Non-flashy guys like Rush, Brandon Roy and Paul Pierce always seem to slide further than they should.

JJ Hickson — The Magic, who need a PF much more than they need a SG like Lee or CDR, should not let him get past them at 22.

Joe Alexander — Saw him on ESPN last night, seems like a great kid; Would make a great fit in D’Antoni’s system.

DeVon Hardin — Have liked this kid from the get go, would love to see him wearing #40 next year for the C’s

Courtney Lee — Sounds like he could walk in opening night and be our 7th man, but his stock has been rising and is rumored to not get past ORL. I like him a lot but ORL would be dumb not to take a big like I said.

Nathan Jawai — I was infatuated with DeSagana Diop back in 2001 (I wanted Joe Johsnon, Diop and Brandon Haywood or Tinsley). I looked like a moron for a long time but he’s developed into an NBA center. Jawai is the other big i’m hoping the C’s add this summer. Looks like what Stanley Roberts mixed with Roy Tarpley coulda been if either had cared.

Sasha Kaun & Marcelius Kemp — My targets at #60. Kaun is a big man with a contract in Russia who we could bring over in a couple years; Kemp is a team-first swing man from Nevada would sounds like a poor man’s Courtney Lee.

Guys you couldn’t pay me to draft:

Eric Gordon — Strikes me as this years version of Shawn Respert/JJ Reddick/Trajan Langdon as a great college SG would will be an NBA bust.

Anthony Randolph — See: Darius Miles, Stromile Swift, possibly Tyrus Thomas.

Mareese Speights — Donnel Harvey should have been all the cautionary tale Speights needed to stay at U of Florida.

Derrick Rose — Doesn’t belong here, I’d add him to the C’s in a minute, but I can’t help but feel like he’s being overrated in the way Jay Williams was the year he got drafted by the Bulls.